Jim Murray

5 years ago · 7 min. reading time · ~10 ·

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Grumpy and Grouchy Take a Fearless Stab At Forecasting 2019 And Beyond.

Grumpy and Grouchy Take a Fearless Stab At Forecasting 2019 And Beyond.

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Jim ‘Grouchy’ Murray
CANADASo Happy New Year and welcome to volume 38 of Phil and my ongoing series of highly opinionated stuff.  This one is about 2019 and beyond and there's no top 10 list or resolutions anywhere to be seen.


30f30740.pngJIM: Well 2019 is on us and all kinds of people are making predictions about where things are headed in the coming year. Most of them, of course are clueless idiots who get all their news from TV and social media, which as we all know now, are fake.

Some others, and by some I mean pitifully few, actually dig down a bit deeper and come up with some insights worth sharing.

While still others operate pretty much on intuition and semi-educated experience-based guesses.

I guess I would fall into that last category.

My guess is that to most people, the world looks like a gigantic shithole, filled with corrupt politicians, greedy rich people, over polluted air and water, too damn many humans, and too much ideological division.

But at the same time, a lot of what I just said could have well been said by someone as the Industrial Age (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Revolution) was taking shape and changing everything about the way the world worked and not necessarily all for the better.

What we are in the throes of right now is a new revolution ushering in what I guess you could call the Information Age. And once again, the world is being thrown into a bit of chaos, as businesses everywhere struggle to keep pace.

This Information Revolution, once again, creates a whole new playing field for business and society to operate on. But it won’t happen overnight and it won’t be without its share of casualties.

Phil, while you and I are both writers, we do come from different sectors. I come from marketing and communications and you come from the marine industry.

I’d really be interested in exploring opinions on how these areas, that we know a bit about, will move forward in the future.

be2f6f94.pngPHIL: Hey, Jimbob, don’t sell me short. I may toil in the marine business sector, but one of my avocations is social philosophy. Well, sort of… anyway. So, sit back, relax, and enjoy the rant you’ve had the temerity to unleash.

First, this ain’t no Golden Age of Communication. For a decade or two we hoped it was. We thought, “Wow! The Information Superhighway is open for business.” And that you and me and baby makes three could all travel digitally around the world to talk to whomever and whichever expert we pleased. To get the real skinny on just about anything and everything unfiltered by academic institutions or governments or political BS artists. But unfortunately, it weren’t to be.

No sir. What we got ourselves here is a Bull Chip Age of Miscommunication or maybe false communication and a highway along which truth and fact are hijacked every hour of every day by the moguls of social media and search engines. It’s so bad that even Tim Berners-Lee, the inventor of the World Wide Web, is puking every morning in his Wheaties.

And guess what… It’s not as though the likes of Zuckerberg, Dorsey, Hoffman, and Page are vicious jack-booted tyrants. Nope, they and their minions are more like nerds locked perennially in their high school years but imbued with comic-book-like super powers to manipulate and control what we see and read every day. And they do it, because, like teenagers, they are unknowing and uncaring of what’s right and at the same time full of themselves.

Yet, the irony of the situation is that, despite the power they de facto wield, they remain, at base, nerds who lack the cojones to guard and maintain their power for good. Instead, they will likely if they haven’t already — cave in under the slightest pressure from the dark forces of Russian and/or U.S. Intelligence, the NSA, various western and Asian governments, and maybe even organized criminal elements (Yea, I know, what’s the difference?) to allow the internet security measures to be co-opted in actions against the rest of us.

Which brings me to my primary prediction for 2019: This is the year we will learn of the extensive betrayal by many social media moguls of the trust the rest of us have misguidedly placed in them and their avowals of open worldwide engagement and communication.

How’s-zat grab ya, Buster?

f563241f.pngJIM: Ha. Ha. Ha….well, you know me well enough to know that this is pretty much right up my alley. Your description of what’s going on right now reminds me of all the carpetbagging that went on after the civil war, in a way.

As you know, I’m on the record, in both this column and independent rants, as being radically more than cynical about the nefarious uses that the information all the blind rabble so foolishly provide these nouveau carpetbaggers.

It didn’t bother me so much at first, because as a marketing guy, I kind of understood the need for data, to help clients wade through this morass and cop a little ROI from their sometimes massive digital investment.

But a couple of weeks ago I saw an article on a former Reddit executive, who, now that she is free to speak about it, has basically confirmed my suspicions that all the data used to lure advertisers into this medium is actually fabricated.

And that’s easy enough to do, since there are very few people out there who would even know how to investigate this. You can tell from Zuckerberg’s performance in Washington that these politicians have no clue whatsoever. And we all know that things can be pretty wild in any industry with no oversight.

As far as 2019, I kinda sorta agree with you, that we are now becoming aware of the issues. Finding solutions for them will be a lot more challenging, simply because the number of carpetbaggers grows exponentially every week and the number of idiots willing to accommodate them in return for a bunch of likes and some magic beans is growing even faster, as technology makes them dumber and dumber.

The only hope I have is that the generation of people who are taking over control will not allow themselves to be seduced or corrupted by any of this well-established bullshit. But that’s just a bit of a wishful thinking.

For me, personally, I am slowly moving away from social media and more into finding sources of insight from people who are looking at the bigger philosophical picture of where we are going and how we get there.

My sister, who is very bright, has been sending me podcast links that will enable me to source insight directly from the people who have it, as opposed to the bots and idiots out there who either want to direct my thinking or have no clue about anything anymore.

So here we are violently agreeing that 2019 should be some sort of watershed year of discovery, but not really sure that it will.

Which begs the question of what the world will become over the next decade or so. Is it going to get fixed or are we completely pooched?

50ad137b.pngPHIL: I don’t know what the etymology of “screwed the pooch” is but as a lifelong dog owner, I’m not comfortable thinking about what it might be.

What I do know is that we’ve stepped off the edge of the Information Superhighway into a pile of dog shit as former Reddit CEO, Ellen Pao, whom you mentioned at the beginning of this piece, recently confirmed. The question now is whether we’ll ever be able to clean our shoes of the stink.

I believe that, over the coming decade or so, we’ll see an underlying dialectic struggle play out between 1) national government seeking to re-establish their respective control of the “informational borders”, 2) transnational corporations seeking to further their decades-old ideology of making themselves the basic political units of the world, and 3) the New-Millennia Resistance fighting back to maintain our remaining vestiges of individual freedom and open expression.

To be sure, that struggle will be overlaid with the all-too-common political street fighting between Liberals, Conservatives, and the Trumpite lunatic fringe, not to mention the increasingly fanatical Islamic right. But the key struggle will be, as it always is, for the hearts and minds of the majority. And that means for control or to resist control of worldwide digital communications and information sharing.

What I think you and I agree on is where the key battle of the next decade will be fought, and ironically, that is on the internet.

f89ed213.pngJIM: One of the key nefarious activities that the Internet, mainly through social media, has accomplished, is the creation of a culture of one-sided conversations. To wit, it has given every individual who participates the opportunity to limit, in many cases totally, points of view that differ from their own.

This, in turn has created a wide ideological chasm which relatively few people are willing to bridge. Mainly because they fear the intellectual discomfort that comes with anyone questioning or challenging their points of view.

This, of course, is anti-intellectualism in its purest form, and really runs counter to everything people like you and I believe about nature of learning, and the true nature of conversation.

That conversation, the ability of people to absorb and acid test their own points of view against others, is a severely endangered species, and one which I believe is the main root cause for the great ideological divide we see in the world today.

Add to that the invasion of the bots which are working to exacerbate that situation by creating more disruption and you have a serious intellectual plague in society. And those who are smart enough to see through it tend, more often than not, to back away, because they find that there is extreme toxicity on both sides.

So my long term prediction is that there will end up being two kinds of people on the Internet. The ideological victims, both liberal and conservative, and the rest of us, who have become fatigued from banging our heads against either wall, and simply retreat to find like-minded and more enlightened people of their own.

I believe this will be the beginning of a new movement or subset of social media users who will steer clear of the mainstream bullshit and simply work to create and participate in meaningful, constructive discussions on a wide range of issues probably ex politics, since that is always a bag of snakes at best.

Right now, you can see some of it happening in various groups on LinkedIn and other places. Enlightened people have a way of finding each other and I believe, or at the very least, hope this number will grow.

I have never really had much time for people who were entrenched in ideas that I considered to be ridiculous. And I have certainly done my share of trying change opinions. But that is in the process of changing as I find myself backing off and searching for a different way forward.

One of my early advertising mentors once told me that the most effective way to sell anything to anyone is to make them feel like it was their idea in the first place. That has always been the one trick I have tried to perform throughout my advertising career. But, sadly this sort of thinking only works with people who have even a little bit of open-mindedness in their brain pan.

Which, sadly these days, the majority of people do not.


Well that wraps up this edition. You can agree or disagree with what went on here. You can feel free to voice your opinion in the comments. In fact, we would really like to know how you feel about the future. Because, as the man said….it will be here before you know it.


Jim Murray & Phil Friedman are both writers, both opinionated and both old enough to spot bullshit from a mile away.

If you want to read more of these pieces, you can find them here:

https://www.bebee.com/@jim-murray


Comments

Phil Friedman

5 years ago #13

#16
I agree, in the main, with what you say, Nicole Chardenet. But I lay the much of the blame for the election of Trump not only on those who believed his BS, but upon the stubborn, self-impressed, completely-ignorant-of-realpolitic supporters of Sanders and other splinter candidates who withheld their support from Hillary Clinton because they "didn't like" her. When it's a one-on-one fight with a truly ignorant megalomaniacal martinet for the most powerful public office of one of the most powerful national states in the world, you don't have the political luxury of withholding your vote or your support because your preferred choice didn't receive the nomination. I don't like Hillary, didn't trust her, and am sure that Bernie Sanders would make a much better POTUS. But a vote for Hillary Clinton was a vote against Trump and only the politically effete (like the many of the academics who were members of the old Party Quebecois) don't/didn't understand that. With the result that someone who should never have been nominated in the first place actually won the U.S. presidency. And how's that working out for all you highly-principled supporters of Sanders and other candidates who withheld your votes?

Jerry Fletcher

5 years ago #12

#13
Thanks Phil. And the best to you an yours as well.

Phil Friedman

5 years ago #11

#1
Yep, Jerry Fletcher, can't be certain what's coming at us, although it sure is something. However it comes down, my best to you for a healthy, happy, and prosperous New Year!

Phil Friedman

5 years ago #10

#2
Thank you, John Rylance, for reading and commenting. And for the kind words. My best to you for a healthy, happy, and prosperous New Year!

Phil Friedman

5 years ago #9

#3
There is a lot of truth, Franci\ud83d\udc1dEugenia Hoffman, beBee Brand Ambassador, in what you say. My best to you for a healthy, happy, and prosperous New Year!

Phil Friedman

5 years ago #8

#4
I think, Praveen Raj Gullepalli, that 2019 will see less lethargy and acceptance of what has been happening to the Internet. We can only hope -- and keep the faith. Cheers and best wishes for a healthy, happy, and prosperous New Year!

Phil Friedman

5 years ago #7

#7
Thank you, Pascal Derrien. Rest assured I personally have no intention of passing quietly into the night. Keep the faith -- and may you have a healthy happy, and prosperous 2019. Happy New Year!

Phil Friedman

5 years ago #6

#6
Interesting predictions, as well, Paul Walters. I too will not look for a Booker -- although your chances are fifty times greater than mine. In any event, my best to you for a healthy, happy, and prosperous New Year!

Pascal Derrien

5 years ago #5

Same as it ever was but as long as you two keep on sharing your views there is hope me thinks 😉

Paul Walters

5 years ago #4

Phil Friedman gentlemen your diatribe was at least interesting, to say the least. You both concentrated on the issue of the internet and social media. Me, I cannot predict how 2019 will go...but let me have a go. I guess I am fortunate to travel and my journeys take me all over the globe and over the last two to three years I have witnessed the unbelievable rise in populism and nationalism. In 2018 at Italy, Romania, Hungary, Montenegro, Austria, Poland, Spain, France and Britain swung to the right. Brazil's appointment of its latest president shows that this self-same movement has spread to South America. America hasn't reached that critical tipping point, but, my God its perilously close. Today in the Guardian I read a wonderful piece on Canada following up on the 50,000 Syrian refugees Canada took in in 2016. many of them were settled in Montreal and how they were coping with -20-degree temperatures and how average Canadians were going out of their way to help these displaced people far from home in a strange country which at this time of year is frigging freezing! This, however, was tempered by a piece on the chappie that they elected in Ontario who if he had his way would send them all packing back to where they came from! So to Canada, the ' nice' country can all to easily slip into the same malaise of the countries I mentioned above. 2019 ???? Well, methinks Trump will be forced to resign, leaving a stain on America's history. 2) The economies of the world will begin to wobble. 3) Brexit will be the ultimate undoing of the EU 3) Africans will begin to speak Mandarin as the colonisation process there is almost done. 4) and I won't win the Booker Prize for literature.

Paul Walters

5 years ago #3

Jim Murray gentlemen your diatribe was at least interesting, to say the least. You both concentrated on the issue of the internet and social media. Me, I cannot predict how 2019 will go...but let me have a go. I guess I am fortunate to travel and my journeys take me all over the globe and over the last two to three years I have witnessed the unbelievable rise in populism and nationalism. In 2018 at Italy, Romania, Hungary, Montenegro, Austria, Poland, Spain, France and Britain swung to the right. Brazil's appointment of its latest president shows that this self-same movement has spread to South America. America hasn't reached that critical tipping point, but, my God its perilously close. Today in the Guardian I read a wonderful piece on Canada following up on the 50,000 Syrian refugees Canada took in in 2016. many of them were settled in Montreal and how they were coping with -20-degree temperatures and how average Canadians were going out of their way to help these displaced people far from home in a strange country which at this time of year is frigging freezing! This, however, was tempered by a piece on the chappie that they elected in Ontario who if he had his way would send them all packing back to where they came from! So to Canada, the ' nice' country can all to easily slip into the same malaise of the countries I mentioned above. 2019 ???? Well, methinks Trump will be forced to resign, leaving a stain on America's history. 2) The economies of the world will begin to wobble. 3) Brexit will be the ultimate undoing of the EU 3) Africans will begin to speak Mandarin as the colonisation process there is almost done. 4) and I won't will the Booker Prize for literature.

John Rylance

5 years ago #2

#1
Obviously a team player, he could have said "towards you", and left you to possibly be railroaded.  I always enjoy Jim and Phil's pieces.  The future is defined by how we all work together. We are never going to achieve total togetherness , but that's no reason not to try.

Jerry Fletcher

5 years ago #1

Jim and Phil, This episode reminds me of a conversation I had with my creative director few years back: I said: "I can see light at the end of the tunnel." He responded without looking up from his keyboard, "Look carefully, that might be a train coming toward us." And so it goes.

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