Lucky Liverpool

Luck said Jose Mourinho is an essential ingredient in winning a title.  On any given week, the team driving for the championship will play below their best, or maybe the opposition was actually better than them and they rode their luck.  Liverpool have certainly rode their luck this season.  An absolute fluke of a goal that got them 2 extra points against Everton was just added to with 2 extra points as a "Spursy" defence, gift wrapped the win for Liverpool with an own-goal.

Not that we should we pointing our finger to a mistake from Spurs defender Toby Alderweireld, when it was another clanger of a mistake from Spurs goalkeeper Hugo Lloris that actually created the last minute calamity that lost Spurs this match.  Yet there was a greater clanger from Mousa Sissoko that actually defined the game, instead of laying the ball of the right for Heung-Min Son to tap into what would have been a wide open empty net, he decided at that moment that he would try to be a hero for Tottenham.  Bad error of judgement and this for a player who suffers from confidence problems.

One cannot begrudge Liverpool riding their luck, because it takes two teams to tango in order to make that luck.  Sure Tottenham played their best football for a long while in the second half, but they still lack a champions heart and while Liverpool got another huge lucky break today to keep in touch with Manchester City at the top of the league, this does not mean that Liverpool have a champions heart either - other than Liverpool have a long historic track record of winning.  What counts is that Liverpool have not had that track record for 30 years - and Spurs have not had that track record for 60.

At the end of the year, luck is just one ingredient in a title winning season.  Lady luck only counts if the end objective has been achieved, otherwise these moments of luck are merely flash-in-the-pan moments - some fortunate days where one wins the battle, but still loses the war.  The battle was 3 points against Tottenham, but the real test of whether luck received counts for anything is what Liverpool to do when they travel away to desperate and struggling Cardiff City. 

Meanwhile for Spurs, there is the opposite side of the coin to consider, the fate of the unlucky team.  This has been the first time Spurs have failed to win in 5 straight games since 2012.   That is not a good moment to have the worst run of form in 7 years, especially with Manchester United and Chelsea both winning and now just one more game away from overtaking Tottenham, and not when Arsenal need to complete the job against Newcastle on Monday, which will mean they send Tottenham clinging to 4th place in the process if that is Arsenal take their opportunity.

The team that will be disappointed is Manchester City, because it is incredible hard work to stay top of the Premier League and while Liverpool have leap-frogged them, City have that game in hand that will send them 1pt ahead of Liverpool.  The real slice of luck Liverpool now have is that Manchester City still have to face Tottenham and they have to face them three times in the space of 10 days.  Those games against Tottenham, two in the Champions League and at home to Tottenham in the Premier League may yet determine the direction of the league title.  City also have the inconvenience of having to go to a resurgent Manchester United and try to win their. 

United fans ironically may not want to hand the title over to Manchester City, but their true rivalry is against Liverpool and so it is will be mixed feelings if they help Liverpool fans to another title.  The rivalry is based on the number of league titles both clubs have won.  United now lead the all-time record of title wins, but if Liverpool start getting back the title winning bug, within four years, they can overhaul United and lay claim to the team with the most league titles ever.  United have won 20 titles and if Liverpool win the title this year, that will be their 19th title.   It is in the Premier League era that United have asserted their dominance, winning 13 Premier League Titles under Sir Alex Ferguson and in the same time Liverpool have won ZERO.  Liverpool winning a Premier League title then is a very big thing.  Liverpool asserting more "league title" wins (including the original English 1st Division) is still a big deal.  It was a big deal for United fans when they surpassed Liverpool's all-time record.

So the subject of luck is in context with success achieved.  The feeling of being lucky counts for nothing if the overall objective that luck contributed to has not been realized.  It is therefore more telling what unluck does to a team or organizations mentality, rather than moments of enjoying luck.  For sure luck is an ingredient in winning a title, but the mentality of winning a title is bigger than just how luck contributed to the final outcome.  For Spurs, losing or drawing were both calamitous results, but especially losing.  Their unlucky moment may be more defining financially and mentally speaking, than Liverpool's slices of huge luck this year.   Those slices of luck merely have kept Liverpool's ticket open for the title run-in but for Spurs, it has been years and years of shedding disappointment for their success starved fans.  For Pochettino, just as for his name sake Mauricio Sarri of Chelsea - both have never won a major trophy of any sort or colour in their careers - and until they do, there is the perennial question mark against their respective careers.

The new stadium move for Tottenham has injected some extra belief into the Tottenham minds, hearts and legs - because their display against Liverpool in the second half so them at times play much better than the aspiring title contenders.  Yet, there was several poor decisions after completing very well well played moves, that led to an empty result.  That emptiness is what Tottenham are contending with, especially with the specter of losing out on a Top 4 place - which having spent a billion dollars on a World Class new stadium, will be financially crippling for the club.  Liverpool gained $90 million dollars for getting into the Champions League final, which they spent ever-so wisely on what some thought was an over-priced defender in Van Dijk and an over-priced goalkeeper in Allison.  Yet those two players have served to eradicate two areas where Liverpool were most vulnerable in the past.  It was an astute over-spend which Liverpool is counting towards their present good fortunes.  Liverpool have also been lucky in their draw for the Champions League, so will earn more money by securing a semi-final place.  Spurs are considered unlucky for drawing Manchester City.

Yet no one is saying that it is Manchester City who may have been unlucky to draw Tottenham and it is not easy playing two games against the same team, never mind three games.  So in that overall picture of luck, Liverpool's lucky breaks are currently supporting the teams confidence levels, especially at the end of the season, when the team that holds their nerve is the team that lays claim to the Championship.  Liverpool still have to hold their nerve against Chelsea - and if they happen to ride their luck in that game also, then there is an expression (a positive superstition) that "your name is on the cup".  Once a team believes they are destined to win something, additional things happen that accelerate that power of belief - but it is just as likely to be what is called a "false dawn" - to suddenly build expectations, only for an ever greater calamity to become the actual defining memory of that season.  That is what the Liverpool vs Chelsea game represents, for Chelsea still have the hoodoo over Liverpool that left them with nothing, when they were expected or near as the term " a sure bet" to land their first title in three decades. 

In footballing history, that prior calamity for Liverpool is for ever known as the Steven Gerard moment and one of the only things that anyone has to remember the career of Chelsea striker Demba Ba.  Liverpool can count their luck today so long as they don't end up coffing up another Demba Ba moment this year.  As for Spurs - they are now "Tottering Tottenham" again - and ironically they need to take points of Manchester City to keep hope their dwindling hopes of retaining a top four finish - and if that happens, that is just the kind of luck that wins a team like Liverpool, the Premier League title.

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