What If Putin Wins?

It could be worse than losing.

“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful what we pretend to be.” Kurt Vonnegut

In this world of pretenders, Vladimir Putin may rise to be the greatest pretender of all (in modern times, anyway). He follows in a long list of Russian posers, including Rasputin, who was poisoned, much like some of Putin’s detractors, (Alexei Navalny comes to mind, his closest rival).

Putin hasn’t resorted to chemical weapons yet in the Ukraine, but it’s all poison to him, and he does favour that sort of thing. He’d probably do it tomorrow if he wasn’t facing so much international condemnation.

Not Putin, obviously. He was expecting a good old fashioned shakedown, much like he did in Georgia and the Crimea.

Then we have the Ukrainians themselves. Who expected them to put up this much resistance? Not Putin, obviously. He was expecting a good old fashioned shakedown, much like he did in Georgia and the Crimea.

That didn’t happen (so far, anyway). Now he’s facing the sociopolitical ride of his life. His assets are frozen, and he’s been dumped from SWIFT, the payment network which allows the smooth and rapid transfer of funds across borders.

You’d think he’d be more worried than he is, or maybe he has more capital assets than we think, which wouldn’t surprise the odds-makers who know Putin’s backroom dealings better than most. Many wonder if his wealth—ill-gotten at best—doesn’t far exceed all our expectations.

It seems he’s been pillaging military budgets for years, amassing huge financial resources. No doubt these are in unconventional places. For all we know, those mega yachts he and his oligarchs own in Cyprus have golden hulls.

This is Invasion 101.

The other part of Invasion 101 is optics. Even if you’re losing $20 million a day (one downed Su-34 jet costs $36 million), you can still pretend you don’t care. Putin is a card player. As Oscar Wilde once said, “You only play fair if you’re holding the winning cards.” Putin is a known cheater. I doubt anyone plays cards with him anymore.

Let’s offer Putin a worse threat: Winning.

So forget about conventional threats like sanctions, war crimes and reparations. Let’s offer Putin a worse threat: Winning.

Think of it as a multi-million dollar home lottery. You get the house, the Porsche in the driveway, then you get the tax bill, the maintenance fees, the capital costs.

According to the National Endowment for Financial Education, seventy percent of winners end up broke or go into bankruptcy within five years.

Many sell the house within the first month, usually at a drastic discount. In one lottery alone, all nine winners sold their prizes.

Now let’s look at this in terms of the Ukraine.

If Putin wins this war, he can’t very well claim he denazified Ukraine. He’ll be in front of a War Crimes Tribunal. That’ll be the first question they ask. If he can’t produce Nazis — which he can’t — the court moves on to other claims, namely the unjustified bombing of humanitarian corridors, hospitals and other institutions.

What do you do with the remnants of war, including 251 crippled or abandoned tanks, 33 downed aircraft, 37 helicopters and 939 armoured vehicles?

Meanwhile, he has to deal with the capital costs of reconstruction. What do you do with the remnants of war, including 251 crippled or abandoned tanks, 33 downed aircraft, 37 helicopters and 939 armoured vehicles? That’s just in the last two weeks. It could double or triple in the future, if it hasn’t already.

Haulage alone will run in the millions, not to mention infrastructure costs. Rebuilding Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Mariupol, Lutsk and Ivano-Frankivsk won’t be easy, given the extent of the damage. Downtime for any major metropolis costs billions. Think of East Germany after WWII. Reconstruction took years. Lousy optics, in other words.

All of which begs a bigger question: Where will Putin get the money to rebuild the Ukraine, even if he does have golden-hulled yachts? Central banks won’t extend credit because the ratings agencies have now listed the Russian economy as “garbage.”

Without the banks and other lending institutions, he can’t stabilize Russia’s currency, meaning the ruble goes into a tailspin (which it’s doing now).

Being the pretender he is, though (and a master at misinformation) he’ll figure out some way to claim liquidity, but that still ignores a bigger problem facing him in a post-invasion scenario, namely consumer confidence.

With world condemnation comes a loss of markets. Germany has halted the Nord 2 Gas Pipeline. The United States and Canada are banning Russian oil and gas shipments. Countries all over Europe are following suit, which can only make Putin’s recovery more difficult, even if he finds replacement markets.

Surprisingly, there could be a silver lining in all this. If countries like Germany decide to lessen their dependence on oil and gas (since Russia is the main distributor), and move towards alternate energies like liquid hydrogen, Europe could be meeting their carbon targets sooner than we think.

If other nations see a similar reticence, they might ban Huawei, which would be disastrous.

Then there’s China, now Russia’s largest trading partner. While refraining from admonishing Russia, China knows there are consequences, particularly in the consumer marketplace. Just last week, Huawei lost two of its British non-executive board members, both claiming the company didn’t act fast enough to condemn the Ukraine invasion. If other nations feel the same way, they might ban Huawei, which would be disastrous.

It’s one thing to come to another Communist’s aid, but you don’t build trading partnerships (which China needs) siding with a country intent on driving an otherwise peaceful nation into the ground.

Which, of course, brings up the sociological and psychological aspects of this war. Right now, there are over 2.5 million refugees in bordering countries. What will they return to? Areas of Kyiv, Kharkiv and Dnipro are levelled to the ground. Consider also the emotional equation. How many families can return to any form of normalcy after this, especially if they’ve lost loved ones?

And let’s not forget the Russian soldiers returning to their homes, having witnessed an invasion that was so mismanaged, troops are receiving rations that date back to 2015. Some have been seen begging at Ukrainian homes for food. At this rate, they have to be wondering if they’re invaders or a beggars.

He’s essentially a low rent bully who got his hands on the nation’s coffers and figured he’d blow the bundle.

Putin should think about this as he tries to return Russia to its former sovereign glory. There’s no glory here. Thousands of Russians are protesting in Moscow and St. Petersburg, demanding peace from a pretender who still thinks poisoning his opponents is justified and thoroughly Russian.

As for pretending, Putin should be careful what he pretends to be. He’s not a nation builder. Or a Nazi killer. He’s essentially a low rent bully who got his hands on the nation’s coffers and figured he’d blow the bundle.

He’s certainly blown a good portion. Whether that matters to him or not is anybody’s guess. Pretenders tend to spend first and get the heebie-jeebies later. Besides, he’ll be busy trying to justify a war based on reunification of the motherland. Everyone knows it’s self-serving—even Putin—but he’s made a career out of being self-serving, so he hardly sees reason to stop now

No doubt part of him feels heroic. If this war doesn’t convince him otherwise, he may go on thinking he’s a nation builder whose soul purpose is the betterment of the Russian people.

When you’ve pretended as long as he has, it tends to become a habit.

Robert Cormack is a novelist, journalist and blogger. His first novel “You Can Lead a Horse to Water (But You Can’t Make It Scuba Dive)” is available online and at most major bookstores. Check out Robert’s other articles and stories at robertcormack.net or join https://robertcormack.medium.com/membership