Paul "Pablo" Croubalian

6 years ago · 4 min. reading time · 0 ·

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So, What do you think? Am I crazy?

So, What do you think? Am I crazy?

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Blog Poets

About the Author

I'm a ghost but not the kind that's to pottery
wheels. I'm the wnting kind

Toften wonder if Im a tech-savvy writer or a
writing-savvy technologist Maybe I'm both. As
one CMO put it, "Paul makes tech my bitch!
That might be going a hittle too far

myTweetPack.com
The Ultimate Twitter SystemIt started benignly enough. Last Saturday, my wife was at a vernissage.

I'd rather have wisdom teeth yanked out with rusty pliers, so I stayed home.

It was a nice day. I decided to clean out the shed. Perhaps my insanity started with that decision. 

Perhaps not. 

It's been four years since I first promised I would get to it.

Saturday was the day. 

I found our bicycles while cleaning out the shed. They were in a sorry state. The tires were flat, the chains rusty, and each sported a generous mantle of cobwebs.

Suffice it to say that I filled said tires, oiled said chains, and power washed said cobwebs away. All the while, I thought of Jim Murray and Don Grandy, two avid cyclists.

With my bicycle looking much more like a bicycle should, I decided to take it on a little shakedown ride. I think that's where my insanity caught up with me. 

My little 15-minute shakedown ride became a four-hour tour of the Village of St-Eustache (my home) and its surroundings.

Like Jim said in one of his posts, you see much more on a bicycle than in a car.

That is very true, Jim. 

What I saw pissed me off.

Allow me a short digression. My first career, 1978 to 1992, was in development real estate. I gave up the biz as part of an attempt to save my first marriage. Since I call it, "my first," you can guess how effective that sacrifice was.

Back then, I specialized in smallish projects to a maximum of $4 million. Most were under $2 million and many were under $750,000. 

I never had an interest in changing skylines. I preferred to change lives.

In property development, one major flop can kill you. None of my projects carried any such risk. No speculative property buying or land banking for me. It was as close to crystal ball development as you can get.

I still have my developer's eye. That eye was offended.

I still have my developer's mind. It hasn't forgotten any tricks.

During my ride, I found seven wonderful development opportunities. I wasn't looking for them. Maybe I didn't find them at all. 

Maybe they found me.

Empty lots and empty buildings are a blight

They are also a waste. They are a waste of space. They are a potential source of much-needed jobs. They represent opportunities not just for the developer, but for those who will use them to better their lives. 

Their unrealized potential affects all.

Many are too small to interest developers. I find that silly.  

Small is quick. Small is less risky. Small is a highly profitable niche. My favorite development of all (I've been responsible for some 3,000,000 square feet of development in my time), was a Victorian style, commercially zoned home of 3000 square feet. 

It was empty for 6 years. Someone burned it down. More accurately, the fire gutted the inside and did a number on the roof. The outside was all heavy stone. It looked fine.

Perfect. That fire saved me the trouble of dealing with the Historical Society. It also saved me a bunch of money because I didn't need to gut the place.

I bought the burned out hulk for $170,000. I already had a lease in hand from an insurance broker for the ground floor. One of the architects bidding on the project took the top floor. Planning started with two of three floors rented. The lawyer who reviewed the architect's lease took the middle floor. We were full before we even applied for permits.

Total Cost was about $550,000. Construction time was 4 months. We sold for $970,000 within four more months. You gotta love a $400,000 risk-free profit in 8 months!

So why do developers turn their noses up on small deals?

Opportunity #1

Vacant Lot: Intersection of two busy streets approx: 30,000 square feet.

Issue: Some 15 years ago, the owner foolishly sold off half his land. He sold the half away from the intersection so I guess he wasn't a complete idiot. The Problem: Since then, the Town built a left-turn median blocking access to his lot from the drive-home side of the main road. The lot is too short to safely cut the median. The Town built another median blocking entry to his lot from the drive-home side of the secondary road. That problem is minor if the first can be rectified.

Opportunity: I'm not even looking for tenants, but I know of three fast-food franchises looking in the area. This site would be perfect, but only if the issue is solved. Offhand, I see three ways to fix it.

Opportunity #2

Old Home on Major thoroughfare: This one reminds me of my favorite deal, but bigger. It's an old home of about 3800 square feet with a view of the river. It has three floors, six fireplaces, a large paved lot, and an out-building of approximately 1200 additional square feet. It was built in 1909. Insulation was not a thing back then.

It screams out to be professional offices.

Opportunity #3

The picture above was taken during a street fair right in front of the restaurant I opened and sold. How the buyer managed to go under within 3 years starting from a thriving place is beyond me. The building is empty. 

I'm undecided about the best use-case for this property. It could be another restaurant. It could be more professional offices. That annual street fair could be a problem for office space, but the offices would carry a higher rent.

The building has 52 parking spots.

My Problem(s)

I was tempted to return to the development fold. In the old days, I would send out a fax blast (remember those?) to 14 people. That fax described the project. I would have it provisionally funded within a day.

All my investors have passed on save one. He thinks we're in 1980.

My database of expiring leases and chains looking for sites is twenty years out of date. On the plus side, modern tech can rebuild it in a fraction of the time the original took to build.

The trust company that provided all my take-out mortgages has been bought by another. Doesn't make much difference,  contacts there have all retired.

Very few people remain active. The network would need to be rebuilt from scratch, this time I won't have the wunderkind reputation opening doors for me. The idea does not fill me with dread. It doesn't rile me up like it once did either. 

Is that good or bad?

Still, the waste annoys me.

For most of my life, I attacked things that annoy me.

So what say you? Am I crazy? 

If so, am I crazy like a fox or like a loon?

I am decisive by nature. Rightly or wrongly, I act. I can always act again if I'm wrong. Yet, here I sit in the unaccustomed role of being indecisive. 

I'm hoping some discussion here can provide clarity.

Is crowd-funding a possibility? I confess that I'm not well-versed in the concept.

Thoughts?



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Comments

Fancy J London

6 years ago #17

#20
LOL!

Paul "Pablo" Croubalian

6 years ago #16

#19
FancyJ London, thanks again. I'm just afraid people will start talking (LOL). I'm half expecting my wife to say, "Who's this FancyJ chick?!!"

Fancy J London

6 years ago #15

I really thought I was going to be productive today, had a list of things to do here it is noon time and I can't stop reading your posts!! I don't know whether I should praise you or tell you to stop doing this to me! Lol! As always I thoroughly enjoy waisting half my day on beBee with Paul \ 😊

Paul "Pablo" Croubalian

6 years ago #14

#17
thank you, Erroll -EL- Warner

Paul "Pablo" Croubalian

6 years ago #13

#15
LOL, I can't really say there was much trouble, turmoil, or twists, . We weren't the wild-and-crazy things portrayed on TV and movies. It's just a business mich like any other.

Mohammed Abdul Jawad

6 years ago #12

I presume after tons of trouble, turmoil and twists in real estate, its better to have some trifling time with tidbits of counseling to others.

Paul "Pablo" Croubalian

6 years ago #11

#11
Humm, affordable housing may be the only scenario where I would be more tempted to actually get off my keister and prioritize action on this. More often, development is aimed at maximizing profitability. By definition, "highest and best use" means that use which makes the most $$. Rarely would that be affordable housing. More often development works to the detriment of affordable housing. Case in point: An acquaintance bought up several 6-unit buildings in a resort area north of Montreal. They were in rough shape. He emptied them out, renovated and furnished them. They are now strictly for AirBNB rentals.

Paul "Pablo" Croubalian

6 years ago #10

Thanks for all the comments and private messages. I'm still pissed off about all that waste. I have come to my senses and decided NOT to do anything about it, at least for the nonce. I can only do so much with my time. Still, it was fun to think about for a bit.

Paul "Pablo" Croubalian

6 years ago #9

#9
#6 It's not so simple as that. I often replaced cash with nimbleness. I was able to move on a deal within a day, often within hours. I also never had a problem paying a little more for an extra security blanket (that put the real estate agents squarely on my side). Nimbleness means a list of possible tenants and a list of possible investors always at the ready. Half measures won't fly. Today, there is a ton of tech to help. I can upload franchise locations to a Fusion Table complete with mapped out exclusivity ranges. I can map where everyone is, and just as importantly, where they aren't. I can also map out color-coded office lease expiry dates to help select projects. I can overlay possible projects and shortlist possible tenants. Databases and the means to mine them is dirt cheap (our original computer system cost us $175K). Now, rough feasibility calculations can be handled by my phone. Those things are not the problem. I still need to amass the data to mine it. That implies a minimum 3 to 6-month data-collection period. Knowing who wants to be where and when is vital. Knowing who needs what is also vital. Sometimes development is just a thing on paper. We once "overpaid" $250K for a strip mall. The anchor tenant had an ancient lease for $1.15 a foot. He also needed $500K in improvements and inducements to roll the location to a franchisee. They signed an offer to lease at $11 a foot subject to a $500K improvement budget. We then "overpaid" for the strip mall.

Pascal Derrien

6 years ago #8

I think deep down you know what you are going to do with that idea :-)

Paul "Pablo" Croubalian

6 years ago #7

#7
Never really thought about it, Charlene Norman. Humm, I feel another book coming on. BTW: I'm starting an audiobook tomorrow.
#4
So pick a project and do it--a trial run. Nothing says you can't get out again. Keep thinking small. Rebuild your network (nothing wrong with making new friends), do one project, and if it feels like too much of a headache--get out.

Paul "Pablo" Croubalian

6 years ago #5

Donald \ud83d\udc1d Grandy are mentioned in this post

Paul "Pablo" Croubalian

6 years ago #4

#2
Here's the thing, Joyce. My ex wasn't all wrong. Real estate dev is a 24-hour thing. If I commit, I go all in. Do I really want to do that again? Many of my old headaches will no longer exist. Tech has moved plenty in 20 years. But still . . . . Maybe I'm just feeling restless.

Paul "Pablo" Croubalian

6 years ago #3

#1
Nope, been there done that. Two restaurants, one bakery is enough
Nothing is gained without risk. Sounds like you are well aware of all the problems you face in going forward with this. Rebuild your network--make new friends and get off your arse. I say rebuild your network first. Thoughts?

Wayne Yoshida

6 years ago #1

Back to the restaurant / bakery business?

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